Block’s Bold 3-Year Plan: Fintech Comeback in Motion?

If there’s one thing fintech loves, it’s a comeback story — and Block (yes, Square’s parent company, if you’re still adjusting to the rebrand) seems determined to write one.

After a rocky year that saw the stock fall more than 30% while major indexes marched steadily upward, Block showed up to its first investor day since 2022 with a message that can be summed up in two words: We’re back. And the market seems at least tentatively convinced — shares popped 9% after the company unveiled a surprisingly bullish three-year outlook.

Let’s break down what matters, why the Street is paying attention again, and what this means for the broader fintech ecosystem.

A Forecast the Market Wanted — and Needed

The headline number is the one that turned Wall Street’s head:
Block expects gross profit to grow in the mid-teens annually through 2028, reaching roughly $15.8 billion.

That’s not a moonshot projection — it’s a confidence play. A signal that Block believes its ecosystem strategy is finally beginning to compound.

The company also expects:

• Adjusted operating income to increase ~30% annually, hitting more than $4.6B by 2028.

• Adjusted EPS to grow in the low-30% range, landing at $5.50 within three years.

• 2026 gross profit up 17% to $11.98B, with both adjusted operating income and EPS rising over 30%.

For a company that has spent several quarters disappointing analysts on revenue (six misses in a row), this new clarity is a meaningful reset.

CFO Amrita Ahuja emphasized that Block is entering “a new phase of execution,” pointing out that since the last investor day in 2022, the company has nearly doubled gross profit and more than tripled EBITDA. That framing matters — Block wants the market to judge it not on short-term revenue slippage but on long-term profitability momentum.

A New Metric for a New Strategy

One of the more interesting updates is Block’s introduction of a non-GAAP cash flow metric. This new figure is designed to capture the capital required to fuel growth in its lending products — a segment that has quietly become more important to the company’s future.

Block expects this measure to exceed $4 billion, or 25% of gross profit, by 2028.

That’s significant. It signals that Block wants to be judged more like a diversified financial platform — not just a point-of-sale hardware company or a peer-to-peer app operator.

The “Rule of 40” Moment

Ahuja also shared that Block has now adopted a “Rule of 40” investment framework, typically used for SaaS companies. For those who need a refresher: it’s the idea that a company’s revenue growth rate plus its profit margin should exceed 40%.

Hitting the Rule of 40 is often seen as proof of business maturity — a milestone that separates disciplined operators from the “growth at any cost” crowd.

Ahuja claims Block expects to reach this metric this year.

Even more interesting: Block has reorganized its operations under one shared roadmap and unified technical infrastructure, a move that hints at fewer silos and more cross-platform synergy. Or, in simpler terms: Square, Cash App, and the various AI-driven seller tools may start to behave more like one ecosystem instead of several loosely connected businesses.

Shareholders Get a Sweetener: A $5B Buyback Boost

Nothing says “we think our stock is undervalued” like a big share repurchase program. Block expanded its buyback authorization by $5 billion, adding to the $1.1B it still had available as of September 30.

Considering the company’s recent valuation dip, this move signals strong internal confidence — and offers a cushion to the share price if volatility returns.

It’s also a subtle nod to investors: Block is ready to reward patience.

The Return of Jack Dorsey (Sort Of)

One subplot that didn’t go unnoticed: Jack Dorsey actually showed up.

The famously elusive co-founder has largely avoided the spotlight lately, spending more time on decentralized technology initiatives and less on traditional corporate appearances. His presence at the investor event was symbolic — a reassurance that leadership is aligned and engaged during a pivotal moment for the company.

Whether Dorsey will maintain a higher public profile going forward remains to be seen, but for longtime shareholders, his appearance was a morale boost.

So… Is the Turnaround Real?

Block still has work to do. The competitive pressure in point-of-sale hardware isn’t easing. Cash App is strong but faces new challenges from alternative digital wallets. And its AI seller tools — promising as they are — still need real traction.

But the company finally seems focused. Disciplined. Cohesive.

This investor day wasn’t about flashy product demos or moonshot narratives. It was about reassuring shareholders that Block is operating with clarity, structure, and long-term vision.

If the company truly executes on the mid-teens gross profit growth and 30% earnings expansion it laid out, 2025 might be remembered as the year Block stopped stumbling and started building again.

For now, the market is giving Block the benefit of the doubt.
The next few quarters will reveal whether that trust is justified.